[FARC_list] NOAA/NASA Panel Concurs that Solar Cycle 25 will Peak in July 2025

ai2n at twcny.rr.com ai2n at twcny.rr.com
Thu Dec 12 19:23:11 UTC 2019

The NOAA/NASA-co-chaired international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel
has released its latest forecast for to forecast Solar Cycle 25. The
panel’s consensus calls for a peak in July 2025 (±8 months), with a
smoothed sunspot number of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be
of average intensity and similar to Cycle 24. The panel additionally
concurred that the solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur
in April 2020 (±6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is
correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the seventh longest on record
at 11.4 years. In its preliminary forecast released last April, the
scientists on the panel forecast that Solar Cycle 25 would likely be
weak, much like the current Cycle 24. 
  “Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak
with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot
range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of
sunspots,” the panel said last spring, adding with “high
confidence” that Cycle 25 “should break the trend of weakening
solar activity seen over the past four cycles.” The panel said the
expectation that Cycle 25 would be comparable in size to Cycle 24
suggests that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude seen from
Cycle 21 through Cycle 24 has ended and that there is no indication of
an approaching “Maunder-type” minimum. Cycle 24 peaked in April
2014 with an average sunspot number of 82. 
  The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots
expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and
minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of
scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space
Environment Services, and other US and international scientists.  


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